It is a documented fact that when I give up on the Giants, they win. I left them for dead in 2007 when they slept walked through the middle of the season and stumbled into the playoffs. What did they do? They won three road playoff games on their way a championship. After going 6-2 to start this season they lost four straight, before bottoming out at 7-7 with two games left. I had actually stuck a fork in them when they embarrassed themselves against the Seahawks in week 5, even though they still had a winning record at the time. So you can understand that considering my history I very much want to stay negative. The local media here in New York is not making it easy for me, practically guaranteeing victory. We need to hold on, and take a deep breath, and remind ourselves: "We're playing the Axis of Football Evil-Tom Brady and Bill 'the Mad Scientist' Belichick." These two are revenge bent, and have the talent and the brains to pull it off. So I keep reminding myself that the Giants are the Las Vegas underdogs, playing the best coach-QB combo around right now, and possibly ever.
There is one big problem with all this. These cautious words of mine are belying my gut instincts. In spite of wanting to play it cool, I have a feeling that, indeed, this game will not be as close as the three point spread. I'm not talking about a blowout like we used to see routinely in the eighties and nineties, when Denver and then Buffalo would stand in as the sacrificial victim come Super Bowl time, losing by thirty or forty points. These teams are too evenly matched, and Tom Brady is too good a quarterback for something like that to happen. But I can see the Giants winning by ten to 17 points.
I see this game as the flip side of 2007 affair. I thought then that it would either be a New England rout or a Giants win if they kept the score low and managed to stick around late. Stick around they did, and we know the result. This time I think it's the Giants who have the more explosive offense, and could separate themselves early. But if Brady can use the weapons he has, namely the short pass game featuring his two tight ends and Wes Welker, to eat up clock and frustrate the Giants' pass rush, we'll have a close game late. Though the New England defense has been criticized during the season, they are playing better now. If they can play defense like they did against Baltimore, and better on the offensive side than they did two weeks ago, we'll have another barn burner like '07, and then I'd have to give the edge to Brady and Company .
Obviously the big question is do the Pats have all their offensive weapons. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who's in the process of revolutionizing the position, is suffering a high ankle sprain, which is far more debilitating than the regular kind. He was seen practicing without a limp Friday, which is a good omen for them. There are also questions about how effective their wide outs will be, in spite of the Giants questionable secondary.
The Giants are healthy, probably for the first time all season, and arguably have the edge in most key match ups. My worry on the New York side is more intangible. They have been talking trash all week, and while Brady and Belichick have been low key about it, you know it gets under their skin. Brady went into the Bronco game with a chip on his shoulder and lit Denver up. You know he's motivated just walking on the field, imagine if he feels slighted?
In the end, in spite of my reservations, I'm going with my gut. I think the Pats certainly can win, and won't be shocked if they do. But I see the game playing out in the Giant's favor, with the G-Men's wide outs having break out games after being stymied by the Niners in the NFC Championship. Again, the Patriots have the ability to throw a monkey wrench into the works, but I have a feeling this is going to be a Big Blue Super Sunday.
Super Bowl Pick: New York Giants 31 New England Patriots 21
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